A whisk(e)y glut? Pernod Ricard’s Irish whiskey arm will halt production at Midleton Distillery in County Cork, where it produces Jameson, from April until the summer, joining industry peers Diageo and Brown-Forman. Diageo has paused production at its distillery in Lebanon, Kentucky, since 7 March, while Brown-Forman mothballed its Scottish distillery Glenglassaugh earlier this year.
Although both Pernod Ricard and Diageo cited an increase in production efficiency as the reason for the halt, the pauses – longer than the usual annual shutdown for maintenance – seem to suggest that supply is exceeding demand in three major whisky nations.
After two decades of near-boundless success in the Scottish and American industries, concern has risen in recent months that the industry is facing the prospect of a downturn. Not only a downturn, but a dreaded glut. When it last happened in the US in the 1970s, it led to the closure of distilleries and a depressed market that took a generation to recover. A similar event occurred in Scotland in the 1980s, where it was termed the Whisky Loch.
Observers say that sales and volume growth had to slow down eventually, but there is no reason to believe those gains will be lost. Besides, historical comparisons bring their own risks. There are several factors affecting the alcohol industry right now: a strong neo-Prohibitionism, younger adults giving up alcohol altogether or shifting to other recreational drugs; and over-the-top price increases. However, the single biggest variable is the Trump administration imposing tariffs. None of this happened during the whiskey glut of the 1970s, though.
Perhaps all this gloom and doom talk about a whisk(e)y glut is really a media phenomenon. If everybody is writing articles about a whisky glut – what have we got? A whisk(e)y glut boom.
Propaganda, misinformation or fake news? According to the Russian newssite Kommersant, Russian importers want to bring in beer from the Dominican Republic. This decision was made against the backdrop of a tenfold increase in duties on beer from “unfriendly” countries, like the EU. Kommersant reports that one of the first companies to apply to the state agency Rosaccreditation for a licence to import the popular Caribbean beer brand Presidente was Mirovoi Trader. The firm, allegedly a major importer, has – allegedly again – been granted the licence already.
Funnily enough, a few days later, the unnamed brewer, which is no other than Cerveceria Nacional Dominicana (CND), which is majority-owned by AmBev and which, in turn, is controlled by AB-InBev, denied any knowledge of such a plan. AB-InBev, at the end of December 2024, lost control of its Russian joint venture with Anadolu Efes, after President Vladimir Putin handed it over to a local company. Now it looks as if the business will be in Russian hands indefinitely.
Russia’s small brewers want MUP for beer to stop the anti-competitive practice of selling beer at below cost price, which harms small companies. They hope it will also protect the market from low-quality products. The Big Brewers oppose the measure, as it would nullify the benefits of economies of scale, which allows them to sell cheaper than small breweries.
The optimal MUP for beer is put at RUB 120 (USD 1.50) per litre, according to Kommersant, which equals the current price of a 0.5 l domestic beer in a supermarket (RUB 60). Expect to pay more in the major Russian cities. It will be interesting to see how the debate over MUP for beer evolves, as this issue pits large Russian brewers against smaller ones – now that all international brewers have been expelled from the market.
So many James, so little time. BrewDog has announced it has appointed a new CEO for the second time in a year. CEO James Arrow has departed for “personal reasons”, effective immediately. He had taken up the role after BrewDog’s co-founder James Watt decided to step down in May 2024. Mr Arrow is succeeded by yet another James – James Taylor – previously Chief Financial Officer of BrewDog. In a second appointment, Lauren Carrol became Chief Operating Officer. Ms Carrol joined the firm in 2018 and was appointed Chief Marketing Officer in 2022. Commentators on LinkedIn joked that the job description for BrewDog’s top job must read: “First name has to be James.”
Budweiser APAC has denied axing thousands of jobs to cut costs. Bloomberg reported that the firm was looking to cut operational costs by about 15 percent this year, which may include thousands of job cuts. In 2024 already, Budweiser APAC axed some 4,000 jobs, or 16 percent of its 25,000-strong workforce. Although AB-InBev reported forecast-beating fourth-quarter profits in February, a 19 percent drop in volumes sales in China dragged on its performance. The company’s portfolio of more premium beers has suffered amid a slow economy and low consumer sentiment.
Indian states not only set prices for alcohol – they also determine brewing methods. The prohibition of High Gravity Brewing (HGB) has previously led to serious supply shortages during the summer months. Now the Rajasthan government, in its fiscal 2025/2026 cycle (April 2025 to March 2026), has permitted HGB. Through the new Rajasthan Excise and Temperance Policy 2025, the northern Indian state has become the first state to permit HGB, which should increase production by 20 percent without altering the beer’s quality. However, this may be too late for the peak beer drinking season between May and July as brewers will need to obtain all kinds of permits first.
With a population of 1.4 billion people, India is an amalgam of 29 different excise territories, each with its own set of tariffs and rules. This does not make for ease of doing business and economies of scale. No wonder, India has never been able to meet peak season demand for beer.
Buy Canadian. In early March, Moosehead, the New Brunswick-based brewery, launched a Presidential Pack, consisting of 1,461 (473ml) cans of Canadian lagers, or one can of beer a day for the next four years of Donald Trump’s presidential term. The Presidential Pack was available for purchase on its website in Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia for CAD 3,490 (EUR 2,287) plus tax and deposit. Home delivery was included. Within days the packs had sold out. Sadly, we will never know how many there were in the first place. Still, it garnered Moosehead plenty of free publicity.
Several Canadian provinces and territories have targeted US alcohol in their fight against Mr Trump’s 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods. Ontario, Quebec and Alberta have directed their liquor regulators to stop buying all American alcohol and pulled it from their shelves, while British Columbia has banned liquor from “red states” (like Kentucky and Tennessee) that voted for Mr Trump last autumn.
The move will not have much of an impact on the beer market, as little beer is imported from the United States. All of the big American brands are actually brewed in Canada.
Thailand might lift ban on afternoon alcohol sales to boost tourism. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has instructed the relevant authorities to examine the possibility of lifting the ban on alcohol sales between 2pm and 5pm and on important Buddhist religious days. Eight business associations from various sectors had argued that the ban on alcohol sales in the afternoon would significantly affect business opportunities and damage the image of Thai tourism. The discussion needs to weigh up the social impact of alcohol control against the economic benefits of relaxing these regulations, though.
The current alcohol sales regulations trace back to 1972, when the military junta implemented restrictions, which primarily targeted civil servants’ habit of extended boozy lunches.
Sweden seeks to legalise yard sales in June, albeit with major restrictions. For more than 20 years the legalisation of cellar door sales or yard sales at small breweries, wineries and distilleries has been deliberated, but successive governments just kicked the can down the road. No one dared impinge on the alcohol monopoly of the state-owned retailer Systembolaget, the guardian of public health. Now things might move quickly. The Swedish parliament is expected to vote on the government’s “freedom reform” bill at the end of April. If all goes to plan, it could become law on 1 June. Don’t hold your breath. In view of the many restrictions, the draft law to liberalise yard sales, which was praised by the Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson as a “long-awaited freedom reform”, is anything but. It is tokenism.
Sapporo reports USD 92 billion impairment charge on Stone. 3D Investment Partners, Sapporo’s largest shareholder, in a letter to Sapporo’s board, berated the management over “impairment losses on all of its overseas alcoholic beverage acquisitions” and questioned the responsibility of the board of directors. The fund specifically railed against the approximately USD 92 million impairment loss that Sapporo booked in January 2025 for Stone Brewing. The letter said Sapporo had acquired the American craft brewer at a price-to-book ratio of 3.4 times, despite Stone’s declining sales and unprofitable operations.